FIN 369 GWU Investment Analysis and Portfolio Management Analysis

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  • Provide a short paragraph suggesting the story that is being told by the historical fundamentals – for example, profitability, growth, abundant free cash, etc.
  • Highlight the abbreviated forecast of the next five-year DCF or FCFF forecasts (i.e., year by year) and the normalized, constant growth calculation for forecast years 6 to infinity.
  • Provide a DCF or FCFF model-based valuation range, explaining in brief your inputs. This range will serve as an “absolute valuation” metric and will be calculated by discounting your individual five-year FCFF forecasts by a realistic WACC, discounting the constant growth by the WACC, subtracting out debt and dividing by shares outstanding. Highlight this absolute valuation range.
  • Provide historical 10-year price/earnings, price/book, and price/sales charts, commenting on today’s relative valuation AND providing the forecasted P/E, etc. metrics that you selected to use in your forecasts. For example, substantiate your P/E ratio and earnings per share forecast inputs that will provide your P/E valuation. This “relative valuation” will serve as range value inputs for your final valuation range. Highlight this relative valuation range.
  • Discuss the important “systematic factors” (value, growth, capitalization, quality, momentum, inflation, interest rates, industrial production, etc.) that you believe will drive this security’s return, explaining why you chose to include the ones that you did. You may wish to supply a simple regression to prove your point (hint)….
  • Discuss the important “fundamentals” (profitability, growth, cash flows, etc.) that you believe will drive this security’s future return, explaining why you chose the ones that you did. Comment on the “embedded expectations” that you believe the market is focusing on (recall that any good analysis is about understanding the embedded expectations in the market price and how those expectations will change so as to drive a higher or lower price in the future).
  • Given your analysis, would you recommend a buy or a sell on this equity security? Explain your recommendation in a “summary paragraph” that you would provide as an executive summary with your employer. Highlight this in a single paragraph, seeking to make sure it is an accurate and complete storyline of your analysis.
  • Provide the duration, convexity, and yield to maturity of any fixed income instrument of this company that matures after 2025. Use any excel, Bloomberg, etc., highlighting the inputs that you used.
  • Provide the Black-Scholes valuation of any option of this company that expires within the next 12 months (please be sure to provide your inputs as well as a brief discussion of your volatility assumptions). Briefly compare your valuation (V) to that last price (P) traded in the market.

Note: The DCF absolute value range will be combined with the P/metric relative value ranges to form a “final range of value”. For example, if the DCF suggests $38/share and the P/metrics suggest $34–37, your valuation range – combining the absolute and relative values – would be $34–38/share.This project’s main deliverable should not exceed 8 pages, front & back, 12 font, double spaced (although you may include an appendix of any length)

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